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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun May 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N17W to 05N26W. The ITCZ continues from 05N26W to 04N37W to 01N50W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 02N to 07N between 20W and 29W and offshore Liberia, Africa. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 01N to 10N W of 44W.

...Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
A weak stalled out front extends from southeastern Louisiana to the extreme NE coast of Mexico. Numerous showers and thunderstorms, being aided by a mid-level trough, are north of 27N between 85W and 91W ahead of the front and will continue to affect the remainder NE Gulf through Sun. Aside from the shower activity, moderate to fresh E and SW winds are affecting the north-central Gulf offshore waters N of 27N and the NE basin N of 28N. In the northern Yucatan Peninula offshore waters, fresh to strong E to SE winds are ongoing along with seas to 8 ft while moderate SE winds are across the Yucatan Channel. Off the W Yucatan coast, winds are moderate from the N-NE. Light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas are elsewhere. Otherwise, areas of haze and smoke due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the stalled front will begin to shift eastward tonight as a weak cold front before stalling again on Sun and weaken gradually through Mon. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin through early Sun, pulsing to locally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche. Winds will slightly weaken Sun into early next week as the pressure gradient relaxes. Moderate to locally fresh SE return flow will develop again across the W Gulf Tuesday through Thursday night.

...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
An Atlantic ridge extends westward along 17N-29N into the Bahamas. The associated pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over SE Mexico is supporting fresh to near gale-force SE winds across the Gulf of Honduras, and fresh to strong E winds in the south-central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere across the basin, except for fresh winds in the SE Caribbean. Otherwise, smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across areas of the northwestern Caribbean, and over the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will persist through Sun morning, reaching near gale-force tonight. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia through Monday night. High pressure from the eastern Atlantic will build some westward Wednesday and early Wednesday night leading to increasing trade winds over most of the central and eastern Caribbean as a weak trough materializes over the western Atlantic. A mid to upper-level trough may bring increasing tropical moisture to the central and eastern Caribbean region around mid-week.

...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
A weak frontal trough extends from 31N57W southwestward to 28N61W and to 27N68W. This trough and two other surface trough over the central subtropical Atlantic intersects a broad ridge that covers the subtropical waters E of 80W, except for the NE Florida offshore waters where middle to upper level diffluent flow support heavy showers and tstms. These showers extends to 76W and reach the northern Bahamas. The ridge supports mainly light to gentle variable winds over the central and western subtropical Atlantic, except for moderate trades off the northern Greater Antilles. A tighter pressure gradient over the E Atlantic, support moderate NE to E winds N of 20N and E of 40W. In the tropics, the trades are moderate, except locally fresh E of the Lesser Antilles. Seas are mainly moderate basin-wide.

For the forecast W of 55W, the trough will shift eastward through late Sun as it weakens further. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are expected across most of the area through Sun night as high pressure extends E to W roughly along 17N-29N. A new front will sink southward into the waters offshore of Georgia and NE Florida early Mon, and move southeastward and weaken through late Tue. A trough may extend from near 30N70W to the northern Bahamas early on Wednesday and slowly shift eastward through Thursday night as possible weak low pressure forms along it.

Forecaster: Nelsie Ramos, National Hurricane Center